Ireland and Scotland meet with calculators and abacas maybe required on Saturday night to decide the World Cup quarter-finalists.
If, Ireland win and they top the pool, with South Africa also going through to the quarter-finals.
But, if Scotland win, things start to get more complicated: if they win and deny Ireland a bonus point, Scotland go through on the head-to-head rule.
If they win, but Ireland get one bonus point, Ireland finish top of Pool B, ahead of South Africa, with Scotland third.
While, if they win with a bonus point and prevent Ireland from getting one, Scotland finish second, behind South Africa, with Ireland third.
If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then point’s difference comes into play. To top the pool Scotland must win by 21 points or more, with Ireland qualifying for the quarter-finals ahead of South Africa on the head-to-head-rule.
South Africa will finish top on points difference, if Scotland win by less than 21 points at Stade de France, but both they and Ireland pick up a bonus point. In this instance, Scotland qualify for the last eight at Ireland’s expense;
Ireland guarantee top spot if they secure two bonus points.
Ahead of the final pool matches, this is how it stands...#RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/hnAlxBUI1S
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 6, 2023
So if you have figured it out, let’s look at the actual match!
Teams
Ireland head coach Andy Farrell has made two changes to his starting side from the win over South Africa. Iain Henderson coming into the second row for James Ryan, and Dan Sheehan taking over at hooker from Ronan Kelleher. Flanker Peter O’Mahony will win his 100th Ireland cap.
Scotland have picked themselves up after their opening round defeat to South Africa to record two bonus point wins in a row and give themselves a shot at the last eight. To get there, they have to beat Ireland, something they haven’t managed since 2017.
Second-row Grant Gilchrist, scrum-half Ali Price and right-wing Darcy Graham retain their places in the starting XV after the 84-0 win over Romania, in Gregor Townsend squad, with captain Jamie Ritchie returning at blindside flanker.
However, recent history doesn’t sit well for the Scots. Gregor Townsend has yet to record a victory over the Irish as the national team’s head coach.
Player Head-To-Head
Johnny Sexton v Finn Russell. What other in-match personal challenge could it be, really? Sexton will set a new record for most Ireland appearances against Scotland (16), moving clear of Brian O’Driscoll, Cian Healy, Ronan O’Gara and Rory Best. He is also Ireland’s leading points scorer against Scotland (138). The Scots’ magician Russell, meanwhile, has only been on a winning side against Ireland once in his career. What a time this would be to win his second.
Teams: Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (c), Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson; Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Stuart McCloskey
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe; Finn Russell, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Jamie Ritchie (c), Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Luke Crosbie, George Horne, Ollie Smith.
Ireland v Scotland
Stade de France, Saint-Denis (80,023)
Kick-Off: 21:00 local time
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia).
